It is now clear that we are again as we were in mid- March at the time of the Bear Stearns collapse an epsilon away from a generalized run on most of the shadow banking system, especially the other major independent broker dealers (Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs).

If Lehman does not find a buyer over the weekend and the counterparties of Lehman withdraw their credit lines on Monday (as they all will in the absence of a deal) you will have not only a collapse of Lehman but also the beginning of a run on the other independent broker dealers (Merrill Lynch first but also in sequence Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and possibly even those broker dealers that are part of a larger commercial bank, I.e. JP Morgan and Citigroup).

Then this run would lead to a massive systemic meltdown of the financial system. That is the reason why the Fed has convened in emergency meetings the heads of all major Wall Street firms on Friday and again today to convince them not to pull the plug on Lehman and maintain their exposure to this distressed broker dealer.

This bail-in of investors is the opposite of a bailout of investors like the one that was done in the case of Bear Stearns and Fannie and Freddie. It is thus akin to the bail-in of investors that was done in the case of LTCM in the summer of 1998 and the bail-in of the interbank creditors of Korean banks in the winter of 1997.

Since government bailouts put at risk public money and create moral hazard Treasury and the Fed decided that they need to draw a line somewhere after the bailouts of Bear Stearns creditors, of Fannie and Freddie and all the other actions aimed at backstopping the financial system.

These actions have included the creation of the TAF, TSLF, PDCF, the use of the FHLBs to provide liquidity to distressed mortgage lenders, the provision of Treasury liquidity to the FHLBs, the outright purchase of agency MBS by the Treasury, the swapping of two thirds of the safe Treasuries of the Fed for toxic illiquid securities of banks and non banks, etc. So after having created the mother of all moral hazard with their actions (including the biggest bailout of all, i.e. the rescue of Fannie and Freddie) the Fed and Treasury are playing a chicken game with the financial system.

Tim Geithner told clearly to the heads of all the major Wall Street firms that if they pull the plug on Lehman and Lehman collapses they are next in line for a run on their institutions. So if a buyer for Lehman is not found (or even if it is found and the counterparty lines are still pulled) not only Lehman will collapse but the run will extend to all of the other major broker dealers and banks that are the counterparties of Lehman.

The Fed may delude itself in thinking as its stress models suggest that the systemic risk of a collapse of Lehman are less serious than those of Bear Stearns: afterall Lehman is less involved into CDSs than Bear was and now both Lehman and the other major broker dealers have access to the discount window with the PDCF.

A collapse of Lehman instead will have as much of a systemic effect as the collapse of Bear for many reasons: Lehman is larger than Bear was; Lehman is a major player in a variety of key financial markets; all the other major Wall Street institutions are interconnected with Lehman in dozens of different types of counterparty activities; the PDCF support of the Fed is neither unlimited nor unconditional, i.e. investors cannot assume that Lehman or any other broker dealer can borrow unlimited amounts with no conditions from the discount window.

Thus, a collapse of Lehman would trigger a panic and a potential run on all sort of other broker dealers and also on other distressed financial institutions like banks (WaMu) and insurance companies (AIG) and smaller member of the shadow financial system (distressed and highly leveraged hedge funds, etc.).

The reason why Lehman is having a hard time to find a buyer is that it is most likely insolvent. If you had to mark to market the value of it illiquid and toxic assets (the $40 billion of commercial real estate assets, its remaining residential MBS and CDOs, its holdings of real estate private equity funds) Lehman is most likely insolvent (i.e. has negative net worth with liabilities well above its impaired assets).

So leaving aside the potential and now dubious value of its franchise (an option to the value of a much slimmed down financial institution) no financial institution should be paying even a single penny to buy an insolvent firm.

That is why all the potential suitors of Lehman (such as Bank of America and others) are waiting for the government to provide another sleazy Bear Stearns deal where the government would buy at higher than market value the toxic assets of Lehman (the commercial real estate assets for example) so as to make the net worth of the remaining institution positive and worth buying. But such action borderline illegal in the case of Bear as pointed out by Paul Volcker would be a scandal in the case of Lehman and severely exacerbate the moral hazard problem.

But here lies the conundrum of this Lehman crisis: no one seems to want to buy for a positive price Lehman unless there is a public subsidy (taking off their toxic assets off the firms balance sheet). The government cannot afford to provide the subsidy as the moral hazard problems are becoming severe. But then if on Monday no deal is done Lehman collapses and goes into Chapter 11 court and you have the beginning of a systemic financial meltdown as the run on the other broker dealers will start.

Thus, what Fed and Treasury are trying to do this weekend is another 1998 LTCM bailin or Korea 1997 bailin, i.e. trying to convince all the major institutions to either support a purchase of Lehman or maintain their exposure to Lehman if no buyers is found. Can this bail-in work? It is not clear as there is a major collective action problem: you cant only convince half a dozen major Wall Street firms to maintain their exposure to Lehman.

You need also to convince all the other counterparties of Lehman (including the hedge funds and the other broker dealers and banks) not to roll off their claims and credit to Lehman. This is a much more messy collective action problem and coordination game than in the case of LTCM and Korea where the number of involved counterparties was more limited (less than 20 in each case).

Paulson and Bernanke and Geithner (the troika managing this financial crisis) have all made public statements in the last few month to the necessity of finding an orderly way to close down rather than bailout a major and systemically important non bank financial institutions: the embarrassment and losses for the Fed that the bailout of the creditors of Bear led made it paramount to avoid another Bear like bailout.

That is why they are now playing tough with Lehman and its creditors. But in this game of chicken the Fed and the Treasury may end up being the ones to blink. Faced with the risk of a generalized run on the other broker dealers they may decide that greasing again a deal for the purchase of Lehman may be less costly and less risky than testing whether the system can orderly work out a collapse of Lehman (something that is highly uncertain).

Even in the case of the Bank of America purchase of Countrywide such public subsidy was significant (the FHLB of Atlanta lent to Countrywide over $50 billion and Bank of America has most likely received plenty of tacit forbearance from the Fed to support its takeover of an insolvent Countrywide). So implicitly or explicitly the Fed and the Treasury may decide however reckless and moral hazard laden that choice may be to provide some explicit or implicit subsidy to a private purchase of Lehman.

The trouble is that, in spite of all public statements regarding the need to provide an orderly demise of large broker dealers, the Fed and the Treasury have done nothing to create such insolvency regime for such broker dealers. So the only option for Lehman if a buyer is not found - will be the one of ending up in Chapter 11 and trigger massive losses on its counterparties that will in turn trigger a run on such counterparties.

In February of 2008 I predicted in my 12 Steps to a Financial Disaster that one or two major broker dealers would go bankrupt. A month later Bear Stearns went bust and the collapse of the other ones was avoided for a time by the most radical change in monetary policy since the Great Depression, i.e. the creation of the PDCF that extended the lender of last resort (LOLR) role of the Fed to non-bank systemically important broker dealers (i.e. all of the bank and non bank primary dealers of the Fed).

I next argued in June that such action would not prevent a run on other broker dealers such Lehman as to avoid a run you need both deposit insurance and unlimited and unconditional access to the Fed LOLR support. I also discussed why Lehman was next in line for a collapse and why the PDCF would not prevent a run on Lehman.

I also argued in follow-up pieces that, in a matter of two years, no one of the remaining independent broker dealers (Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs) would survive as: 1. their business model is now impaired (securitization is semi-dead); 2. they will need to be regulated like banks given the PDCF support and thus have lower leverage, higher liquidity and more capital that will erode their profitability; 3. Their severe maturity mismatch borrowing very short term and liquid, leveraging a lot and lending and investing in more long term and illiquid ways makes them very fragile in the absence of deposit insurance and in the presence of only limited LOLR support by a central bank to bank like run that are destructive even of illiquid but otherwise solvent institutions.

Thus all such broker dealers need to merge with larger financial institutions that have a commercial banking arm and thus access to stable and insured deposits and to true LOLR Fed support. That process of unraveling of independent broker dealers started with Bear Stearns; now it is moved to Lehman; tomorrow Merrill Lynch will be on line; and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will be next. No one of them can and will survive as independent entities. So, the Fed and Treasury should advise them all to start finding a large international partner (international as almost no domestic partner is now sound to take them over) and merge with such partner before we get another Bear or Lehman disaster.

The step by step, ad hoc and non-holistic approach of Fed and Treasury to crisis management has been a failure so far as plugging and filling one hole at the time is useless when the entire system of levies is collapsing in the perfect financial storm of the century. A much more radical, holistic and systemic approach to crisis management is now necessary.

What we are facing now if the beginning of the unraveling and collapse of the entire shadow financial system, a system of institutions (broker dealers, hedge funds, private equity funds, SIVs, conduits, etc.) that look like banks (as they borrow short, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and in illiquid ways) and thus are highly vulnerable to bank like runs; but unlike banks they are not properly regulated and supervised, they dont have access to deposit insurance and dont have access to the lender of last resort support of the central bank (with now only a small group of them having access to the limited and conditional and thus fragile support of the Fed).

So no wonder that this shadow banking system is now collapsing. The entire conduits/SIV system has already collapsed with the roll-off of their ABCP financing; next is the collapse of the broker dealers (Bear, Lehman and soon enough the other ones) that rely mostly on unstable overnight repos and other very short term funding for their financing; next will be hundreds of poorly managed hedge funds that will face a tsunami of redemptions; and finally runs on money market funds that are not supported by a large financial institutions or other smaller member of the shadow banking system as well as highly leveraged and distressed private equity funds cannot be ruled out either.

This is indeed the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression and occurring at a time when the US is falling in a now severe consumer led recession. The vicious interaction between a systemic financial and banking crisis and a severe economic contraction will get much worse before there is any bottom to it. We are only in the third inning of a nine innings economic and financial crisis. And the only light at the end of the tunnel is the one of the incoming train wreck.

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The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is one of those agencies with a low profile but essential role similar to plumbing or electricity you don't notice it until the power's out or the basement's flooding.

These days, the FDIC's folks are busier with the financial equivalent of fixing burst water mains and dead power lines. Seventy-five years after it was launched during the Great Depression, the bank regulator and insurer is facing its biggest challenge in decades. Many banks in Georgia and across the nation have been battered by the slumping economy and troubled loans to home builders, developers and homeowners.

Hundreds could fail, some industry experts predict. That could force the agency to make good on its promise to insure most customers' checking and savings deposits up to $100,000 and some retirement accounts up to $250,000, putting pressure on its insurance fund.

Is the agency, whose combined insurance funds were technically pushed into insolvency during the savings and loan debacle two decades ago, ready for another banking crisis? And how bad could it get? Despite the frequent gloom on both Wall Street and Main Street, industry players seem confident in the overall resiliency of the banking industry and the FDIC's ability to shelter customers from bank failures.

The FDIC, which had shrunk to 4,600 employees from 23,000 at the height of the savings and loan meltdown, has been gearing up for another wave of bank failures. It's hiring 70 new employees and bringing back 70 retirees to beef up its teams that swoop in, usually over a weekend, to take over and reopen banks under new management.

The FDIC's Atlanta regional office, which covers seven states from West Virginia to Florida, also recently boosted its bank examiner and professional staff by about 10 percent, to about 300. The agency is also expected to soon raise the insurance premiums it charges banks and thrifts to begin rebuilding its reserves.

The FDIC won't discuss its projections, but it has been increasing its loss provisions for expected bank failures and adding institutions to its growing "problem" bank list. The list totaled 90 institutions with $26.3 billion in assets at the end of March. The confidential list is expected to be longer when the FDIC issues an update Tuesday.
"We don't predict numbers of bank failures," FDIC spokesman David Barr said. "We do realize that there will be more failures, but it's something that we can manage."

Even though most of the headline-grabbing bank and real estate problems center on Florida and California, Georgia is likely to emerge as a hot spot, as well. The state's banks, which included 109 community banks that were launched since 2000, built up the nation's heaviest concentration of loans to home builders and real estate developers. Many of those businesses have since gone belly-up, saddling banks with growing piles of bad debt and foreclosed properties.

Nine of the state's banks recently landed on a top-25 list compiled by SNL Financial based on the so-called "Texas ratio," which attempts to gauge how likely the institutions will run into financial trouble. FDIC officials said they expect the Deposit Insurance Fund, which had $52.8 billion at the end of March, to remain sound.

"The losses would have to be pretty catastrophic" to create a deficit, said Arthur Murton, the FDIC's director of insurance and research. That's because, Murton said, under a federal reform law passed after the S L crisis, the agency was given more flexibility to raise the deposit insurance rates it charges banks whenever needed. "We have a pretty significant fund, and we have the ability to replenish it," he said.

Certainly the FDIC's and the banking industry's challenges so far haven't come close to the challenges of the 1930s and 1980s. Some 9,000 banks failed in the four years before Congress created the FDIC in 1933. Thousands of institutions also failed during the S L crisis. Year to date, eight institutions have failed.

Georgia has so far gotten off rather lightly, with no bank failures this year and relatively few during those earlier crises. Eight Georgia banks failed in the late 1930s, and 21 collapsed from 1988 to 1992. The largest so far was last year's shutdown of NetBank in Alpharetta, with $1.5 billion in deposits. But both the state and national tallies will grow, industry analysts predict.

They expect possibly hundreds of bank failures nationally over the next few years as more borrowers ranging from homeowners to businesses default on loans. How many will depend on whether the economy enters a recession. "For a lot of banks, the die has already been cast," said Jeff K. Davis with FTN Midwest Securities.

At the low end, he estimates that roughly 100 banks will fail over the next 18 months if falling crude oil prices and recent gains on Wall Street point to a possible turnaround in the economy. That number could swell to 600 failures if the economy falls into a serious recession, although most will be small community banks, he added.

The FDIC will have to absorb "some expensive failures," but nothing like past waves of bank failures because banks are generally much larger and better diversified, said Bert Ely, a longtime bank industry consultant who has his own firm in Alexandria, Va. "The banking industry goes into this mess much stronger than it was" in those earlier eras, he said.

Some industry watchers say bank failures could wipe out much of the FDIC's insurance fund, forcing the agency to collect significantly higher premiums from financial institutions in the future. The eight failures this year are expected to cost $5 billion to $9 billion, potentially wiping out up to a sixth of the FDIC's insurance fund.

Because of the likely drain on the fund, the FDIC is expected to increase deposit insurance rates as early as next month. Otherwise, the losses will push the fund below a statutory minimum of 1.15 percent of insured deposits. The fund equaled 1.19 percent of insured deposits at the end of March. "As the FDIC incurs losses, those losses will be passed back to the banking industry," Ely said. "The real party at risk here is the banks."

But ultimately, the FDIC can turn to Uncle Sam for help. That's what happened during the S L crisis, when billions in losses wiped out an insurance fund that covered savings and loan deposits. Congress stepped in and turned responsibility over to the FDIC in 1989, giving the agency extra time to rebuild its insurance reserves. Still, that fund dropped to a deficit of $7 billion in 1991 before it began to recover.

The FDIC doesn't expect a replay of those events, despite the heavy losses the agency expects from this year's bank failures. The FDIC's Murton said the initial batch of shutdowns was probably not a good indicator of future trends. The expected losses were skewed unusually high by last month's failure of IndyMac Bancorp, he said. California-based IndyMac, with $32 billion in assets, was the nation's third-largest U.S. bank failure. It is expected to cost the fund $4 billion to $8 billion.

"We had one of the largest and certainly what we think will be one of the most expensive failures at the beginning of the cycle," Murton said. "We don't expect to see repeats of that." In the event that he's wrong, he said the FDIC can draw on a $30 billion line of credit with the federal Treasury to continue covering future bank failures. Beyond that, said Barr, the FDIC spokesman, the agency is backed by the "full faith and credit" of the United States. "It's on the sticker" displayed by federally insured banks, he said.

Gerard Cassidy, a veteran banking analyst with RBC Capital Markets, expects the FDIC to remain sound, even though he projects up to 300 banks will have to close within three years. He expects the FDIC to boost its rates up to 30 percent next month to shore up its insurance fund.

"Although it's going to be challenging, it's not going to be all that bad," said Cassidy, who is credited with devising the so-called "Texas ratio" in the early 1990s to predict which banks or thrifts might fail. "If anyone has a deposit of less than $100,000, they can sleep as soundly as always," he said.

Still, the FDIC's and other bank regulators' performance is getting mixed reviews. Critics say the agencies were too slow and did too little to steer banks away from risky mortgage loans and heavy concentrations in construction and home-builder loans, which account for much of the industry's expected losses.

The FDIC also was criticized for its handling of last month's shutdown of IndyMac. Many people waited hours in long lines to withdraw money or check on accounts. On the other hand, the agency caused barely a ripple when it shut down several smaller institutions such as Bradenton, Fla.-based First Priority Bank, whose deposits were taken over earlier this month by Atlanta's SunTrust Banks.

"I was shocked that the FDIC did not have IndyMac on its watch list until a month before" its collapse, Cassidy said. "You may have an inexperienced team. ... Remember, for the last 13 or 14 years, the banking industry has been pretty benign." Barr, the FDIC spokesman, countered that the FDIC has "a good mix of experienced staff."

He said he's at a loss to explain the unusual level of anxiety among IndyMac's customers. "They knew their funds were insured. ... They still lined up and took their money out," he said. "We've had three failures since IndyMac and they all went smoothly."

He said the FDIC and other regulators were also aware of the growing risk level in banks' loan portfolios, and took action. The agencies issued guidance to banks in 2006 to discourage them from making too many loans to home builders and real estate developers, but they had "a very difficult line to walk" at the time, when banks were still prospering from such lending, he said.
"I feel that we did recognize it and did what we could," Barr said, but "you don't want to cause a credit crunch.

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Two weeks ago, with their stock prices plummeting and accusations of insolvency swirling through the marketplace, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two giant mortgage-finance companies, stared into the abyss.

What looked like a black hole turned out to be a blank check from the U.S. Treasury: an unspecified and unlimited credit line, borrowing privileges at the Federal Reserve's discount window, and a pledge of a capital injection from the government if needed. The Securities and Exchange Commission coughed up additional protection, tightening the rules for short-selling of Fannie and Freddie, along with 17 other financial stocks.

Mission accomplished? With the government making explicit the implicit guarantee of the two government-sponsored enterprises, which together own or guarantee $5.2 trillion of the nation's $12 trillion of mortgage debt, the hope is that Fannie and Freddie won't have to tap the emergency backstops. The fear is that the needed makeover will stop there.

If these public-private hybrid companies are too big to fail -- and everyone from the Bush administration to Congress to businesses and homeowners agrees that they are -- then by definition they are too big to survive in their current state, a paradox voiced by William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in a July 27 New York Times op-ed.

The lame-duck Bush administration, no fan of Fannie and Freddie until recently, has neither the clout nor the interest to refashion the companies. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has said repeatedly that Fannie and Freddie, which play "a central role" in the housing finance system, "must continue to do so in their current form as shareholder-owned companies."

Congress, for its part, isn't interested in an extreme makeover. As part of the Federal Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, awaiting presidential signature, lawmakers provided for a "world class" regulator for the GSEs, according to the Senate Banking Committee's summary of the legislation. (Quotation marks theirs.)

An interesting choice of words. Regulators get their mandate and powers from Congress. Lawmakers, by their own admission, seem to be saying the current GSE regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, is a bantam weight. If Ofheo is, then it's of Congress's choosing: a choice heavily influenced by one of the most effective lobbying machines in Washington.

Earlier this month, Senator Jim DeMint, Republican of South Carolina, said that any federal bailout of Fannie and Freddie should include a ban on their "lobbying and political activities." "Any legislation exposing taxpayers to this risk should include a serious debate on long-term reforms, and a ban on lobbying must be included," DeMint said. "

DeMint tried to hold up Senate passage of the bill last week by forcing a vote on an amendment to curtail lobbying by the GSEs, the only government agencies to engage in such a practice. The Senate leadership rejected his request. Congress isn't known for its long-term thinking.

To the extent that the immediate crisis abates -- borrowing isn't a problem now that Fannie's and Freddie's debt carries the full faith and credit of the U.S. government -- it will reduce the impetus to seek a long-term solution, which is exactly what's needed. A "world class" regulator isn't the solution. Eliminating the asymmetric risk/reward from Fannie and Freddie is.

If the taxpayer is going to shoulder the burden for bailing out Fannie and Freddie, the taxpayer should stand to benefit. It makes no sense to guarantee the debt of a private company, the benefit of which accrues to the shareholders, and not own the equity.

And it isn't only a bunch of right-wing, free-marketeers pushing for a re-evaluation of the role of the GSEs in the 21st century. Former Treasury Secretary and Harvard University Professor Larry Summers, who is an economic adviser to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, said the priority should be protecting the taxpayers and financial system, with the stockholders and subordinated-debt holders taking the hit.

Summers's idea is to run the GSEs as public corporations for a few years, after which their government and private functions could be divided, with the latter sold off. Fannie Mae, created in 1938 and re-chartered as a shareholder-owned company in 1970, and Freddie Mac, chartered in 1970, have strayed far afield from their original mission, which was to provide liquidity, affordability and stability to the housing market.

Nothing in there about "using its cost-of-funds advantage to lever its balance sheet," said Josh Rosner, managing director at Graham Fisher Co. in New York. "Buying manufactured housing, aircraft lease equipment, Alt-A mortgages: the taxpayers should not fund the non-corporate businesses."

What's more, only 7 basis points of the GSE subsidy benefited the home buyer, according to a study by Federal Reserve economists. Now that Congress has passed a housing-rescue bill, which authorizes the Federal Housing Administration to insure as much as $300 billion of refinanced mortgages in addition to establishing a new GSE regulator, "they think the problem is fixed," said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research in Chicago.

Bianco expects the other shoe to drop, perhaps in early August, when Freddie Mac reports quarterly earnings. "Freddie announced its intentions to raise $10 billion of equity on July 18, filed a shelf offering on the 22nd, and the clock is still ticking," Bianco said. "It took Merrill Lynch 12 hours to pull off an $8.55 billion stock sale."

In this era of big government, it's good to know there are a few things the market still does better.

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Every year, the world's most boring people, namely its bankers, await their version of the "Swimsuit edition", the annual report of the Bank of International Settlements or BIS. The latest version [1], produced on June 30, provides a fascinating glimpse into the thinking of the people who are often described as the central bankers to the world's central banks. Of course, I use the term "fascinating" quite loosely here.

The report was widely anticipated for two reasons; first as it represents the BIS view on the global financial crisis that unfolded over the 2007-08 period and second because the world's bankers really have nothing else to do these days than to sit around reading biopsy (or, more cruelly, autopsy) reports on their sector. Instead of reading a lengthy volume over the course of summer though, bankers need to read just a part of one sentence: "... loans of increasingly poor quality have been made and then sold to the gullible and the greedy, the latter often relying on leverage and short-term funding to further increase their profits".

This is really a wonderful sentence for the succinct way in which it describes the goings-on for the wider masses, therefore appearing like a wonderful bikini on the beach. But like a bikini, it conceals some vital aspects while revealing a fair bit. In this case, the BIS has avoided mention of the real source of all the dumb money that swirled around financial markets in the first place, flooding banks and investment managers with more funds than could be invested with reasonable returns.

That would be where central banks in the Middle East and Asia come into the picture, as they retained their significant trade surpluses on account in a bid to maintain currency parity, especially against the US dollar. As I have written before on these pages, the idea for Asian economies makes some kind of "I missed a few classes in economics" sense as officials attempted to keep their exporters happy. For the economies in the Middle East that export nothing but commodities, the idea of a US dollar peg represents nothing other than the subservience of Arab rulers to US interests.

The connection to the banking crises sweeping the US and Europe now is that much of private wealth generated in the Middle East found its way to banks in those countries, and was in turn diverted to "safe" choices like money market funds - the short-term funding sources the BIS discusses above - that invested in the best quality triple A securities. I discuss ratings a bit later in this article.

Back to the Middle East though. US officials led by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recently completed a trip around the region, where they urged Gulf countries to avoid changes to US dollar pegs, even as these countries struggle to contain double-digit inflation that they are importing due to the pegs. It is even thought in some circles that the whole idea of "containing" Iran may have come as a quid-pro-quo from these meetings.

Anyway, oil prices surged to a new high of over US$145 a barrel on Thursday morning (July 3), just in time to remind Americans driving around in their wasteful sports utility vehicles (SUVs)for the July 4 Independence Day weekend the sheer futility of their lifestyle choices going forward. Non-farm payroll data out later in the day may prove to be another nail in the coffin of the American dream, not that I feel this is something to celebrate rather than introspect about.

Back to the BIS report though, this glaring error of omission on the main source of market liquidity that prompted the excess of greed and gluttony not to mention gullibility makes the rest of the report rather pointless. It may seem understandable that an agency concerned with the actions of commercial banks doesn't focus so much on policy institutions such as central banks, but in ignoring the role played by the People's Bank of China, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and others, the BIS has essentially dumbed down the report.

Even as the BIS makes an attempt to draw a line between incompetence, greed and perverse incentives, the world's governments continue to avoid taking responsibility for their own actions. In a recent speech [2], India's Finance Minister P Chidambaram took the cake in calling for a price band on oil that would act much like today's currency peg bands, setting both a floor and ceiling price for oil.

This kind of market intervention is always to be expected from socialist clowns during times of crisis, as we saw during the Asian financial crisis 10 years ago. The reason that the Indian finance minister's remarks rankle are of course the huge fuel subsidies that persist in India, at the cost of strategic priorities such as education and infrastructure.

Such fuel subsidies, as China is also now discovering to its peril, help to keep demand artificially high while disallowing attempts to improve efficiency. This is what the US faced because of decades of governments not imposing a fuel tax as they feared a popular backlash, thereby mispricing a negative economic good (air pollution) at zero; in turn prompting citizens to increase their usage exponentially.

(I dare say that if you buried a few of America's biggest SUVs today for future generations of humans (if any) to find, archaeologists in the year 3000 will have a tough time explaining quite what they were used for; most logically they will conclude that the average American was three meters tall and weighed about the same as a rhinoceros. Strictly speaking, that view wouldn't be entirely wrong, but I will desist from making statements about fat people in this article.)

The idea of calling for a price band to eliminate fuel price speculation conveniently shifts the burden of responsibility from consumers of a scarce natural resource to the people making prices on the commodity. This is stupid for any low-level official to attempt and much more silly for the top finance official of any country to suggest. An Indian journalist of my acquaintance told me this week that he was "deeply embarrassed" by the finance minister's performance, even likening the speech to the infamous "Zionist plot" speech of Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad during the Asian financial crisis 10 years ago.

In addition, our Indian eminence also ignored the role of currency pegs to the US dollar. In an environment of a falling US dollar that doesn't necessarily translate into demand/supply changes (those that could affect future prices of processed items) the only alternative for anyone intending to hedge inflationary spirals would be to buy physical commodities such as gold and oil.

I have written previously about global banks attempting to kick down the price of gold to keep their own relevance intact; that leaves oil as the most sensible diversification tool in a world with too many dollars floating around. That's why the price of oil has gone up, not speculation or rapacious market traders or aliens from Mars.

In times of crisis, there are some curious market rituals to be observed, by far the most entertaining of which would be to observe what investment banks say about each other. Research reports from analysts employed by investment banks who write about other investment banks have become headline news items, with Bank A "downgrading the forecast earnings of Banks B, C and D" while the analyst from Bank B does the same for A, C and D and so on. At the end of this spectacle you have the wonderful feeling that all of them are in big trouble.

This is exactly where we are now, as the most entertaining of reports make their way suggesting that investment banks would have to cut about 25% or more of their staff into the global downturn. Most of the business models are irreparably broken, according to the analysts.

This presents a logical, if somewhat perverse question. If the analysts in question are so smart, why then do they work for an investment bank themselves? And if they aren't smart enough to have decamped to a hedge fund or climbing Mount Everest, why then should normal equity investors listen to them?

Another curious market ritual is what happens with the rating agencies when they finally fess up to their mistakes as they do in every crisis. In the last round, they came out about how the rating processes for companies like Enron would be changed, while also showing the limitations of rating more than US$100 billion of debt issued by telecom companies that had to be serially downgraded in 2002.

This time around, Moody's announced that a computer model used to rate Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs) had been faulty, but the rating company then took the extraordinary step of firing key people in its European unit for violating procedures. What seems to have transpired is that once the errors were discovered, instead of going forward with downgrades, these officials may have "consulted" with the banks issuing (or worse, holding) the CPDOs to discuss financial implications. A downgrade from triple A to something more reasonable for the risk, around single-A, would have meant losses of more than 30% of the principal amount, according to some observers, so clearly the decision wasn't an easy one to make.

The point though is that this particular ritual exposed the rating agencies for what they are - a bunch of businesses that make money providing so-called independent opinions that really only represent the best interests of the investment banks selling those products. This attitude at the heart of one of the more stable money-making businesses on Wall Street - fixed income - says more about the future of the investment banks than any of the research reports do.

Thus it is that starting with the BIS, then harkening to the Indian Finance Ministry, and going on to investment banks and to the rating agencies, we find it is not what people say that matters - it is almost always what they don't.

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A year ago, the Bank for International Settlements startled the financial world by warning that we might soon face challenges last seen during the onset of the Great Depression. This has proved frighteningly accurate.

The venerable body, the ultimate bank of central bankers, said years of loose monetary policy had fuelled a dangerous credit bubble that would entail "much higher costs than is commonly supposed". In a pointed attack on the US Federal Reserve, it said central banks would not find it easy to "clean up" once property bubbles have burst.

If only we had all listened to the BIS a long time ago. Ensconced in its Swiss lair, it has fired off anathemas for years, struggling to uphold orthodoxy against the follies of modern central banking. Bill White, the departing chief economist, has now penned his swansong, the BIS's 78th Annual Report, released today. It is a disconcerting read for those who want to hope the global crisis is over.

"The current market turmoil is without precedent in the postwar period. With a significant risk of recession in the US, compounded by sharply rising inflation in many countries, fears are building that the global economy might be at some kind of tipping point," it said.

"These fears are not groundless. The magnitude of the problems yet to be faced could be much greater than many now perceive," it said. "It is not impossible that the unwinding of the credit bubble could, after a temporary period of higher inflation, culminate in a deflation that might be hard to manage, all the more so given the high debt levels."

Given the constraints under which the BIS must operate, this amounts to a warning that monetary overkill by the Fed, the Bank of England, and above all the European Central Bank could prove dangerous at this juncture. European banks have suffered worse losses on US property than American banks. Their net dollar liabilities are $900bn, mostly short-term loans that have to be rolled over, a costly business with spreads still near panic levels. Mortgage and consumer credit has "demonstrably worsened".

The BIS cautions the ECB to handle its lending data with great care. "The statistics may understate the contraction in the supply of credit," it said. The death of securitisation has forced banks to bring portfolios back on to their balance sheets, while firms in need are drawing down pre-arranged credit lines. This is a far cry from a lending recovery.

Warning signs are flashing across Eastern Europe (ex-Russia) where short-term foreign debt is 120pc of reserves, mostly in euros and Swiss francs. Current account deficits are 14.6pc of GDP. "They could find it difficult to secure foreign funding if global financing conditions were to tighten more severely," it said. Swedish, Austrian and Italian banks have drawn on wholesale markets to lend heavily to subsidiaries across the region. This could "dry up".

China is not immune, although the BIS has dropped last year's comment that growth is "unstable, unbalanced, unco-ordinated and unsustainable". The US accounts for 20pc of China's exports, but that does not capture the inter-links across Asia that ultimately depend on US shopping malls. "There is a risk that China's imports overall could slow down sharply should the US economy weaken further," it said.

Global banks - with loans of $37 trillion in 2007, or 70pc of world GDP - are still in the eye of the storm. "Inter-bank money markets have failed to recover. Of greatest concern at the moment is that still tighter credit conditions will be imposed on non-financial borrowers. "In a number of countries, commercial property prices are beginning to soften, traditionally bad news for lenders. These real-financial interactions are potentially both complex and dangerous," it said.

Do not count on a fiscal rescue. "Explicit and implicit debts of governments are already so high as to raise doubts about whether all non-contractual commitments will be fully honoured." Dr White says the US sub-prime crisis was the "trigger", not the cause of the disaster. This is not to exonerate the debt-brokers. "It cannot be denied that the originate-to-distribute model (CDOs, CLOs, etc) has had calamitous side-effects.

Loans of increasingly poor quality have been made and then sold to the gullible and the greedy," he said. Nor does it exonerate the watchdogs. "How could such a huge shadow banking system emerge without provoking clear statements of official concern?" But there have always been excesses in booms. What has made this so bad is that governments set the price of money too low, enticing the banks into self-destruction.

"The fundamental cause of today's emerging problems was excessive and imprudent credit growth over a long period. Policy interest rates in the advanced industrial countries have been unusually low," he said.The Fed and fellow central banks instinctively cut rates lower with each cycle to avoid facing the pain. The effect has been to put off the day of reckoning.

They could get away with this as long as cheap goods from Asia kept a cap on inflation. It seduced them into letting asset booms get out of hand. This is where the central banks made their colossal blunder. "Policymakers interpreted the quiescence in inflation to mean that there was no good reason to raise rates when growth accelerated, and no impediment to lowering them when growth faltered," said the report.

After almost two decades of this experiment - more or less the Greenspan years - the game is over. Debt has reached extreme levels, and now inflation has come back to life. The easy trade-off has metamorphosed into a vicious trade-off. This was utterly predictable, and was indeed forecast by the BIS, which plaintively suggested in this report that central banks might like to think of an "exit strategy" next time they try such ploys.

In effect, this is an indictment of rigid inflation targets (such as Britain's), which prevent central banks from launching a pre-emptive strike against asset bubbles. In the 1990s, they should have torn up the rule-book and let inflation turn negative in light of the Asia effect. The BIS suggests that a mix of "systemic indicators" should be used.

The crucial objective is to slow credit growth and make sure that the punchbowl is taken away before the drunks run riot. "We need policy measures to lean against credit-drive excess," it said. If there are going to be more bail-outs on both sides of the Atlantic - as there will be - the "socialised risks" should be taken on by political systems, and not dumped on the books of central banks.

"Should governments feel it necessary to take direct actions to alleviate debt burdens, it is crucial that they understand one thing beforehand. If asset prices are unrealistically high, they must fall. If savings rates are unrealistically low, they must rise. If debts cannot be serviced, they must be written off. "To deny this through the use of gimmicks and palliatives will only make things worse in the end," he said. Let us all cheer Dr White off the stage.

Read more...

A network of lenders, brokers and opaque financing vehicles outside traditional banking that ballooned during the bull market now is under siege as regulators threaten a crackdown on the so-called shadow banking system.

Big brokerage firms like Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, which some say are the biggest players in this non-bank financial network, may have the most to lose from stricter regulation.

The shadow banking system grew rapidly during the past decade, accumulating more than $10 trillion in assets by early 2007. That made it roughly the same size as the traditional banking system, according to the Federal Reserve.

While this system became a huge and vital source of money to fuel the U.S. economy, the subprime mortgage crisis and ensuing credit crunch exposed a major flaw. Unlike regulated banks, which can borrow directly from the government and have federally insured customer deposits, the shadow system didn't have reliable access to short-term borrowing during times of stress.

Such vulnerability helped transform what may have been an uncomfortable correction in credit markets into the worst global credit crunch in more than a decade as monetary policymakers and regulators struggled to contain the damage.

Unless radical changes are made to bring this shadow network under an updated regulatory umbrella, the current crisis may be just a gust compared to the storm that would follow a collapse of the global financial system, experts warn.

"The shadow banking system model as practiced in recent years has been discredited," Ramin Toloui, executive vice president at bond investment giant Pimco, said. Toloui expects greater regulation of big brokerage firms which may face stricter capital requirements and requirements to hold more liquid, or easily sellable, assets.

'Clarion call'

"The bright new financial system -- for all its talented participants, for all its rich rewards -- has failed the test of the market place," Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said during a speech in April.

"It all adds up to a clarion call for an effective response." Two months later, Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and others have begun to answer that call.

"The structure of the financial system changed fundamentally during the boom, with dramatic growth in the share of assets outside the traditional banking system," he warned in a speech last week. That "made the crisis more difficult to manage."

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary and former Goldman Chief Executive Henry Paulson said the Fed should be given the authority to collect information from large complex financial institutions and intervene if necessary to stabilize future crises. Regulators should also have a clear way of taking over and closing a failed brokerage firm, he added.

Banking bedrock

The bedrock of traditional banking is borrowing money over the short term from customers who deposit savings in accounts and then lending it back out as mortgages and other higher-yielding loans over longer periods.

The owners of banks are required by regulators to invest some of their own money and reinvest some of the profit to keep an extra level of money in reserve in case the business suffers losses on some of its loans. That ensures that there's still enough money to repay all depositors after such losses.

In recent decades, lots of new businesses and investment vehicles have evolved that do the same thing, but outside the purview of traditional banking regulation. Instead of getting money from depositors, these financial intermediaries often borrow by selling commercial paper, which is a type of short-term loan that has to be re-financed over and over again.

And rather than offering home loans, these entities buy mortgage-backed securities and other more complex securities.

A $10 trillion shadow

By early 2007, conduits, structured investment vehicles and similar entities that borrowed in the commercial paper market and bought longer-term asset-backed securities, held roughly $2.2 trillion in assets, according to the Fed's Geithner. Another $2.5 trillion in assets were financed overnight in the so-called repo market, Geithner said.

Geithner also highlighted big brokerage firms, saying that their combined balance sheets held $4 trillion in assets in early 2007. Hedge funds held another $1.8 trillion, bringing the total value of asset in the "non-bank" financial system to $10.5 trillion, he added.

That dwarfed the total assets of the five largest banks in the U.S., which held just over $6 trillion at the time, Geithner noted. The traditional banking system as a whole held about $10 trillion, he said.

While acting like banks, these shadow banking entities weren't subject to the same supervision, so they didn't hold as much capital to cushion against potential losses. When subprime mortgage losses started last year, their sources of short-term financing dried up.

"These things act like banks, but they're not," James Hamilton, professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, said. "The fundamental inadequacy of their own capital caused these problems."

Big brokers targeted

Geithner said the most fundamental reform that's needed is to regulate big brokerage firms and global banks under a unified system with stronger supervision and "appropriate" requirements for capital and liquidity.

Financial institutions should be persuaded to keep strong capital cushions and more liquid assets during periods of calm in the market, he explained, noting that's the best way to limit the damage during a crisis.

At a minimum, major investment banks and brokerage firms should adhere to similar rules on capital, liquidity and risk management as commercial banks, Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said on Wednesday.
"It makes sense to extend some form of greater prudential regulation to investment banks," she said.

Separation dwindled

After the stock market crash of 1929, the U.S. Congress passed laws that separated commercial banks from investment banks. The Fed, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and state regulators oversaw commercial banks, which took in customer deposits and lent that money out.

The Securities and Exchange Commission regulated brokerage firms, which underwrote offerings of stocks and corporate bonds. This separation dwindled during the 1980s and 1990s as commercial banks tried to push into investment banking -- following their large corporate clients which were selling more bonds, rather than borrowing directly from banks.

By 1999, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act rolled back Depression-era restrictions, allowing banks, brokerage firms and insurers to merge into financial holding companies that would be regulated by the Fed.

Commercial banks like Citigroup Inc., Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase signed up and developed large investment banking businesses. However, big brokerage firms like Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Lehman didn't become financial holding companies and stayed out of commercial banking partly to avoid increased regulation by the Fed.

Run on a shadow bank

The Fed's bailout of Bear Stearns in March will probably change all that, experts said this week. Bear, a leading underwriter of mortgage securities, almost collapsed after customers and counterparties deserted the firm. It was like a run on a bank.

But Bear wasn't a bank. It financed a lot of its activity by borrowing short term in repo and commercial paper markets and couldn't borrow from the Fed if things got really bad.

Bear's low capital levels left it with highly leveraged exposures to risky mortgage-related securities, which triggered initial doubts among customers and trading partners. The Fed quickly helped J.P. Morgan Chase, one of the largest commercial banks, acquire Bear.

To prevent further damage to the financial system, the Fed also started lending directly to brokerage firms for the first time since the Depression.

"They stepped in because Bear was facing a traditional bank run -- customers were pulling short-term assets and the firm couldn't sell its long-term assets quickly enough," Hamilton said. "Rules should apply here: You should have enough of your own capital available to pay back customers to avoid a run like that."

Bear necessity

A more worrying question from the Bear Stearns debacle is why customers and investors were willing to lend money to the firm in the absence of an adequate capital cushion, Hamilton said.

"The creditors thought that Bear was too big to fail and that the government would step in to prevent creditors losing their money," he explained. "They were right because that's exactly what happened."

"This is a system in which institutions like Bear Stearns are taking far too much risk and a lot of that risk is being borne by the government, not these firms or the market," he added.

The Fed has lent between $8 billion and more than $30 billion each week directly to brokerage firms since it set up its new program in March. Most experts say this source of emergency funding is unlikely to disappear, even though it's scheduled to end in September.

"It's almost impossible to go back," FDIC's Bair said on Wednesday. With taxpayer money permanently on the line to save big brokers, these firms should now be more strictly regulated to keep future bailouts to a minimum, Bair and others said.

"By definition, if they're going to give the investment banks access to the window, I for one do believe they have the right for oversight," Richard Fuld, chief executive of Lehman, told analysts during a conference call this week. "What that means, though, particularly as far as capital levels or asset requirements, it's way too early to tell."

Super Fed

Next year, Congress likely will pass legislation forcing big brokerage firms to be regulated fully by the Fed as financial holding companies, Brad Hintz, a securities analyst at Bernstein Research and former chief financial officer of Lehman, said.

Legislators will probably also call for tighter limits on the leverage and trading risk taken on by large brokers, while demanding more conservative funding and liquidity policies, he added.

Restrictions on these firms' forays into venture capital, private equity, real estate, commodities and potentially hedge funds may also follow too, Hintz warned. This may undermine the source of much of the surging profit generated by big brokerage firms in recent years.

A newly empowered "super Fed" will likely encourage these firms to arrange longer-term, more secure sources of borrowing and even promote the development of deposit bases, just like commercial and retail banks, the analyst explained.

This will make borrowing more expensive for brokerage firms, undermining the profitability of businesses that require a lot of capital, such as fixed income, institutional equities, commodities and prime brokerage, Hintz said.

Such regulatory changes will cut big brokers' return on equity -- a closely watched measure of profitability -- to roughly 15.5% from 19%, Hintz estimated in a note to investors this week.

Lehman and Goldman will be most affected by this -- seeing return on equity drop by about four percentage points over the business cycle -- because they have larger trading books and greater exposure to revenue from sales and trading.

Goldman also has a major merchant banking business that may also be constrained, Hintz added. Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch will see declines of 3.2 percentage points and 2.2 percentage points in their return on equity, the analyst forecast.

If you can't beat them...

Facing lower returns and more stringent bank-like regulation, some big brokerage firms may decide they're better off as part of a large commercial bank, some experts said.

"If you're being regulated like a bank and your leverage ratio looks something like a bank's, can you really earn the returns you were making as a broker dealer? Probably not," Margaret Cannella, global head of credit research at J.P. Morgan, said.

Regulatory changes will be unpopular with some brokerage CEOs and could result in a shakeup of the industry and more consolidation, she added. Hintz said the business models of some brokerage firms may evolve into something similar to Bankers Trust and the old J.P. Morgan.

In the mid 1990s, Bankers Trust and J.P. Morgan relied more on deposits and less on the repo market to finance their assets. They also operated with leverage ratios of roughly 20 times capital. That's lower than today's brokerage firms, which were levered roughly 30 times during the peak of the credit bubble last year, according to Hintz.

However, both firms soon ended up in the arms of more regulated commercial banks. Bankers Trust was acquired by Deutsche Bank in 1998. Chase Manhattan Bank bought J.P. Morgan in 2000.

Read more...

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In addition to tax relief for debt forgiveness and mortgage insurance payments, the bill includes: - Tax relief for volunteer firefighters and emergency medical technicians - Help to expand housing options for college students with .

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You can vote for John McCain, and see a continuation of Bush economic policies - more tax cuts to the wealthy, more corporate tax breaks, more mountains of debt, and little to no relief for families struggling with the rising costs of .

Once you’ve made the decision to put your debt behind you, you’ll feel a great deal of relief. It’s not necessary to go another month with fears and concerns over your financial predicament. Susan Megge is a consultant in the credit .

And when liberal Democratic Illinois Sen. Barack Obama says that, as president, he would reverse President Bushs tax cuts only for the wealthiest Americans, he recognizes the same middle-class antipathy to taxes that Prop. .

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. people nowadays and sometimes it may feel as if it will never end but there are ways to eliminate debt that almost anyone can pursue. One way out of the predicament is the use of lenders that specialize in emergency debt relief by [.]

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If your faced with mounting debt and are looking for a legal way to correct your problem then this blog will be the answer to all of your stress.
I can relate but let me explain. Not too long ago I was in Debt for about $187,000 for a failed business venture. To make matters worst this debt was spread out among several credit cards. The interest rate and the minimum amount due each month was killing me.
I had to do something or be in fear of losing everything.
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When this man said the worlds economy was heading for disaster, he was scorned. Now traders, economists, even Nasa, are clamouring to hear him speak

A noisy cafe in Newport Beach, California. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is eating three successive salads, carefully picking out anything with a high carbohydrate content.

He is telling me how to live. The only way you can say F you to fate is by saying its not going to affect how I live. So if somebody puts you to death, make sure you shave.

After lunch he takes me to Circuit City to buy two Olympus voice recorders, one for me and one for him. The one for him is to record his lectures he charges about $60,000 for speaking engagements, so the $100 recorder is probably worth it. The one for me is because the day before he had drowned my Olympus with earl grey tea and, as he keeps saying, I owe you. It didnt matter because I always use two recorders and, anyway, I had bought a replacement the next morning.

But its important and its not, strictly speaking, a cost to him. Every year he puts a few thousand dollars aside for contingencies parking tickets, tea spills and at the end of the year he gives whats left to charity. The money is gone from day one, so unexpected losses cause no pain. Now I have three Olympus recorders.

He spilt the tea bear with me; this is important while grabbing at his BlackBerry. He was agitated, reading every incoming e-mail, because the Indian consulate in New York had held on to his passport and he needed it to fly to Bermuda. People were being mobilised in New York and, for some reason, France, to get the passport.

The important thing is this: the lost passport and the spilt tea were black swans, bad birds that are always lurking, just out of sight, to catch you unawares and wreck your plans. Sometimes, however, they are good birds. The recorders cost $20 less than the marked price owing to a labelling screw-up at Circuit City. Stuff happens. The world is random, intrinsically unknowable. You will never, he says, be able to control randomness.

To explain: black swans were discovered in Australia. Before that, any reasonable person could assume the all-swans-are-white theory was unassailable. But the sight of just one black swan detonated that theory. Every theory we have about the human world and about the future is vulnerable to the black swan, the unexpected event. We sail in fragile vessels across a raging sea of uncertainty. The world we live in is vastly different from the world we think we live in.

Last May, Taleb published The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. It said, among many other things, that most economists, and almost all bankers, are subhuman and very, very dangerous. They live in a fantasy world in which the future can be controlled by sophisticated mathematical models and elaborate risk-management systems. Bankers and economists scorned and raged at Taleb. He didnt understand, they said. A few months later, the full global implications of the sub-prime-driven credit crunch became clear.

The world banking system still teeters on the edge of meltdown. Taleb had been vindicated. It was my greatest vindication. But to me that wasnt a black swan; it was a white swan. I knew it would happen and I said so. It was a black swan to Ben Bernanke [the chairman of the Federal Reserve]. I wouldnt use him to drive my car. These guys are dangerous. Theyre not qualified in their own field.

In December he lectured bankers at Société Générale, Frances second biggest bank. He told them they were sitting on a mountain of risks a menagerie of black swans. They didnt believe him. Six weeks later the rogue trader and black swan Jérome Kerviel landed them with $7.2 billion of losses.

As a result, Taleb is now the hottest thinker in the world. He has a $4m advance on his next book. He gives about 30 presentations a year to bankers, economists, traders, even to Nasa, the US Fire Administration and the Department of Homeland Security. But he doesnt tell them what to do he doesnt know. He just tells them how the world is. m not a guru. Im just describing a problem and saying, You deal with it.

Getting to know Taleb is a highly immersive experience. Everything matters. Why are you not dressed Californian? he asks at our first meeting. Everything in Newport Beach is very Californian. Im wearing a jacket: its cold. Hes wearing shorts and a polo shirt. Clothes matter; they send signals. He warns against trusting anybody who wears a tie You have to ask, Why is he wearing a tie?

He has rules. In California he hires bikes, not cars. He doesnt usually carry his BlackBerry because he hates distraction and he really hates phone charges. But he does carry an Apple laptop everywhere and constantly uses it to illustrate complex points and seek out references. He says he answers every e-mail. He is sent thousands. He reads for 60 hours a week, but almost never a newspaper, and he never watches television.

If something is going on, I hear about it. I like to talk to people, I socialise. Television is a waste of time. Human contact is what matters.

But the biggest rule of all is his eccentric and punishing diet and exercise programme. Hes been on it for three months and hes lost 20lb. Hes following the thinking of Arthur De Vany, an economist of the acceptable type turned fitness guru. The theory is that we eat and exercise according to our evolved natures.

Early man did not eat carbs, so theyre out. He did not exercise regularly and he did not suffer long-term stress by having an annoying boss. Exercise must be irregular and ferocious Taleb often does four hours in the gym or 360 press-ups and then nothing for 10 days. Jogging is useless; sprinting is good. He likes to knacker himself completely before a long flight. Stress should also be irregular and ferocious early men did not have bad bosses, but they did occasionally run into lions.

Hes always hungry. At both lunches he orders three salads, which he makes me share. Our conversation swings from high philosophy and low economics back to dietary matters like mangoes bad and apples good as long as they are of an old variety. New ones are bred for sugar content. His regime works. He looks great springy and fit. He shows me an old identity card. He is fat and middle-aged in the photo. He looks 10 years younger than that. Look at me! That photo was taken seven years ago. No carbs!

This is risk management facing up to those aspects of randomness about which something can be done. Some years ago he narrowly survived throat cancer. The change in his voice was at first misdiagnosed as damaged vocal cords from his time on the trading floor. It can recur. Also he has a high familial risk of diabetes. He is convinced the diet of civilisation full of carbs and sugar is the problem. The grand doctors who once announced that complex carbohydrates are good for you are, to him, criminals responsible for thousands of deaths.

So, you are wondering, who is this guy? He was born in 1960 in Lebanon, though he casts doubt on both these . The year is close enough he doesnt like to give out his birth date because of identity theft and he doesnt believe in national character. He has, however, a regional identity; he calls himself a Levantine, a member of the indecipherably complex eastern Mediterranean civilisation. My body and soul are Mediterranean.

Both maternal and paternal antecedents are grand, privileged and politically prominent. They are also Christian Greek Orthodox. Startlingly, this great sceptic, this non-guru who believes in nothing, is still a practising Christian. He regards with some contempt the militant atheism movement led by Richard Dawkins.

Scientists dont know what they are talking about when they talk about religion. Religion has nothing to do with belief, and I dont believe it has any negative impact on peoples lives outside of intolerance. Why do I go to church? Its like asking, why did you marry that woman? You make up reasons, but its probably just smell. I love the smell of candles. Its an aesthetic thing.

Take away religion, he says, and people start believing in nationalism, which has killed far more people. Religion is also a good way of handling uncertainty. It lowers blood pressure. Hes convinced that religious people take fewer financial risks.

He was educated at a French school. Three traditions formed him: Greek Orthodox, French Catholic and Arab. They also taught him to disbelieve conventional wisdom. Each tradition had a different history of the crusades, utterly different. This led him to disbelieve historians almost as much as he does bankers.

But, crucially, he also learnt from a very early age that grown-ups have a dodgy grasp of probability. It was in the midst of the Lebanese civil war and, hiding from the guns and bombs, he heard adults repeatedly say the war would soon be over. It lasted 15 years. He became obsessed with probability and, after a degree in management from the Wharton business school at Pennsylvania University, he focused on probability for his PhD at the University of Paris.

For the non-mathematician, probability is an indecipherably complex field. But Taleb makes it easy by proving all the mathematics wrong. Let me introduce you to Brooklyn-born Fat Tony and academically inclined Dr John, two of Talebs creations. You toss a coin 40 times and it comes up heads every time. What is the chance of it coming up heads the 41st time? Dr John gives the answer drummed into the heads of every statistic student: 50/50. Fat Tony shakes his head and says the chances are no more than 1%. You are either full of crap, he says, or a pure sucker to buy that 50% business. The coin gotta be loaded.

The chances of a coin coming up heads 41 times are so small as to be effectively impossible in this universe. It is far, far more likely that somebody is cheating. Fat Tony wins. Dr John is the sucker. And the one thing that drives Taleb more than anything else is the determination not to be a sucker. Dr John is the economist or banker who thinks he can manage risk through mathematics. Fat Tony relies only on what happens in the real world.

In 1985, Taleb discovered how he could play Fat Tony in the markets. France, Germany, Japan, Britain and America signed an agreement to push down the value of the dollar. Taleb was working as an options trader at a French bank. He held options that had cost him almost nothing and that bet on the dollars decline. Suddenly they were worth a fortune. He became obsessed with buying out of the money options. He had realised that when markets rise they tend to rise by small amounts, but when they fall usually hit by a black swan they fall a long way.

The big payoff came on October 19, 1987 Black Monday. It was the biggest market drop in modern history. That had vastly more influence on my thought than any other event in history.

It was a huge black swan nobody had expected it, not even Taleb. But the point was, he was ready. He was sitting on a pile of out-of-the-money eurodollar options. So, while others were considering suicide, Taleb was sitting on profits of $35m to $40m. He had what he calls his f off money, money that would allow him to walk away from any job and support him in his long-term desire to be a writer and philosopher.

He stayed on Wall Street until he got bored and moved to Chicago to become a trader in the pit, the open-outcry market run by the worlds most sceptical people, all Fat Tonys. This he understood.

His first book, Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options, came out in 1997. He was moving away from being a pure trader, or a quantitative analyst who applies sophisticated maths to investments to being the philosopher he wanted to be. He was using the vast data pool provided by the markets and combining it with a sophisticated grasp of epistemology, the study of how and what we know, to form a synthesis unique in the modern world.

In the midst of this came his purest vindication prior to sub-prime. Long-Term Capital Management was a hedge fund set up in 1994 by, among others, Myron Scholes and Robert C Merton, joint winners of the 1997 Nobel prize in economics. It had the grandest of all possible credentials and used the most sophisticated academic theories of portfolio management. It went bust in 1998 and, because it had positions worth $1.25 trillion outstanding, it almost took the financial system down with it.

Modern portfolio theory had not accounted for the black swan, the Russian financial crisis of that year. Taleb regards the Nobel prize in economics as a disgrace, a laughable endorsement of the worst kind of Dr John economics. Fat Tony should get the Nobel, but hes too smart. People say to me, If economists are so incompetent, why do people listen to them? I say, They dont listen, theyre just teaching birds how to fly.

Taleb created his own hedge fund, Empirica, designed to help other hedge funds hedge their risks by using a refined form of his options wins running small losses in quiet times and winning big in turbulent markets. It did okay but, after a good first year, performed poorly when the market went though a quiet spell. Hes still involved in the markets, but mainly as a hobby like chess.

Finally, with two books Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, and The Black Swan and a stream of academic papers, he turned himself into one of the giants of modern thought. Theyre still trying to tear him down, of course; last year The American Statistician journal devoted a whole issue to attacking The Black Swan.

But I wouldnt bother. A bad but rather ignorant review in The New York Times resulted in such a savage rebuttal from Taleb on his website, www.fooledbyrandomness.com, that reviewers across the US pulled out in fear of his wrath. He knows his stuff and he keeps being right.

And what he knows does not sound good. The sub-prime crisis is not over and could get worse. Even if the US economy survives this one, it will remain a mountain of risk and delusion. America is the greatest financial risk you can think of.

Its primary problem is that both banks and government are staffed by academic economists running their deluded models. Britain and Europe have better prospects because our economists tend to be more pragmatic, adapting to conditions rather than following models. But still we are dependent on American folly.

The central point is that we have created a world we dont understand. Theres a place he calls Mediocristan. This was where early humans lived. Most events happened within a narrow range of probabilities within the bell-curve distribution still taught to statistics students. But we dont live there any more. We live in Extremistan, where black swans proliferate, winners tend to take all and the rest get nothing theres Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and a lot of software writers living in a garage, theres Domingo and a thousand opera singers working in Starbucks. Our systems are complex but over-efficient. They have no redundancy, so a black swan strikes everybody at once. The banking system is the worst of all.

Complex systems dont allow for slack and everybody protects that system. The banking system doesnt have that slack. In a normal ecology, banks go bankrupt every day. But in a complex system there is a tendency to cluster around powerful units. Every bank becomes the same bank so they can all go bust together.

He points out, chillingly, that banks make money from two sources. They take interest on our current accounts and charge us for services. This is easy, safe money. But they also take risks, big risks, with the whole panoply of loans, mortgages, derivatives and any other weird scam they can dream up. Banks have never made a penny out of this, not a penny. They do well for a while and then lose it all in a big crash.

On top of that, Taleb has shown that increased economic concentration has raised our vulnerability to natural disasters. The Kobe earthquake of 1995 cost a lot more than the Tokyo earthquake of 1923. And there are countless other ways in which we have built a world ruled by black swans some good but mostly bad. So what do we do as individuals and the world? In the case of the world, Taleb doesnt know. He doesnt make predictions, he insults people paid to do so by telling them to get another job. All forecasts about the oil price, for example, are always wrong, though people keep doing it. But he knows how the world will end.

Governments and policy makers dont understand the world in which we live, so if somebody is going to destroy the world, it is the Bank of England saving Northern Rock. The biggest danger to human society comes from civil servants in an environment like this. In their attempt to control the ecology, they dont understand that the link between action and consequences can be more vicious. Civil servants say they need to make forecasts, but its totally irresponsible to make people rely on you without telling them youre incompetent.

Bear Stearns the US Northern Rock was another vindication for Taleb. Hes always said that whatever deal you do, you always end up dealing with J P Morgan. It was JPM that picked up Bear at a bargain-basement price. Banks should be more like New York restaurants. They come and go but the restaurant business as a whole survives and thrives and the food gets better. Banks fail but bankers still get millions in bonuses for applying their useless models.

Restaurants tinker, they work by trial and error and watch real results in the real world. Taleb believes in tinkering it was to be the title of his next book. Trial and error will save us from ourselves because they capture benign black swans. Look at the three big inventions of our time: lasers, computers and the internet. They were all produced by tinkering and none of them ended up doing what their inventors intended them to do. All were black swans. The big hope for the world is that, as we tinker, we have a capacity for choosing the best outcomes.

We have the ability to identify our mistakes eventually better than average; thats what saves us. We choose the iPod over the Walkman. Medicine improved exponentially when the tinkering barber surgeons took over from the high theorists. They just went with what worked, irrespective of why it worked. Our sense of the good tinker is not infallible, but it might be just enough to turn away from the apocalypse that now threatens Extremistan.

He also wants to see diplomats dying of cirrhosis of the liver. It means theyre talking and drinking and not going to war. Parties are among the great good things in Talebs world.

And you and me? Well, the good investment strategy is to put 90% of your money in the safest possible government securities and the remaining 10% in a large number of high-risk ventures. This insulates you from bad black swans and exposes you to the possibility of good ones. Your smallest investment could go explode and make you rich. High-tech companies are the best. The downside risk is low if you get in at the start and the upside very high. Banks are the worst all the risk is downside. Dont be tempted to play the stock market If people knew the risks theyd never invest.s much more to Talebs view of the world than that. He is reluctant to talk about matters of human nature, ethics or any of the traditional concerns of philosophy because he says he hasnt read enough. But, when pressed, he comes alive.

You have to worry about things you can do something about. I worry about people not being there and I want to make them aware. We should be mistrustful of knowledge. It is bad for us. Give a bookie 10 pieces of information about a race and hell pick his horses. Give him 50 and his picks will be no better, but he will, fatally, be more confident.

We should be ecologically conservative global warming may or may not be happening but why pollute the planet? and probablistically conservative. The latter, however, has its limits. Nobody, not even Taleb, can live the sceptical life all the time s an art, its hard work. So he doesnt worry about crossing the road and doesnt lock his front door I cant start getting paranoid about that stuff. His wife locks it, however.

He believes in aristocratic though not, he insists, elitist values: elegance of manner and mind, grace under pressure, which is why you must shave before being executed. He believes in the Mediterranean way of talking and listening. One piece of advice he gives everybody is: go to lots of parties and listen, you might learn something by exposing yourself to black swans.

I ask him what he thinks are the primary human virtues, and eventually he comes up with magnanimity punish your enemies but dont bear grudges; compassion fairness always trumps efficiency; courage very few people have this; and tenacity tinker until it works for you.

s be human the way we are human. Homo sum I am a man. Dont accept any Olympian view of man and you will do better in society.

Above all, accept randomness. Accept that the world is opaque, majestically unknown and unknowable. From its depths emerge the black swans that can destroy us or make us free. Right now theyre killing us, so remember to shave. But we can tinker our way out of it. Its what we do best. Listen to Taleb, an ancient figure, one of the great Mediterranean minds, when he says: You find peace by coming to terms with what you dont know. Oh, and watch those carbs.

Taleb's top life tips:

1 Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.

2 Go to parties. You cant even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.

3 Its not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.

4 Wear your best for your execution and stand dignified. Your last recourse against randomness is how you act if you cant control outcomes, you can control the elegance of your behaviour. You will always have the last word.

5 Dont disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We dont understand their logic. Dont pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific .

6 Learn to fail with pride and do so fast and cleanly. Maximise trial and error by mastering the error part.

7 Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words , , too difficult too often, drop him or her from your social network. Never take for an answer (conversely, take most as most probably).

8 Dont read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants... or (again) parties.

9 Hard work will get you a professorship or a BMW. You need both work and luck for a Booker, a Nobel or a private jet.

10 Answer e-mails from junior people before more senior ones. Junior people have further to go and tend to remember who slighted them.

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When this man said the worlds economy was heading for disaster, he was scorned. Now traders, economists, even Nasa, are clamouring to hear him speak

A noisy cafe in Newport Beach, California. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is eating three successive salads, carefully picking out anything with a high carbohydrate content.

He is telling me how to live. The only way you can say F you to fate is by saying its not going to affect how I live. So if somebody puts you to death, make sure you shave.

After lunch he takes me to Circuit City to buy two Olympus voice recorders, one for me and one for him. The one for him is to record his lectures he charges about $60,000 for speaking engagements, so the $100 recorder is probably worth it. The one for me is because the day before he had drowned my Olympus with earl grey tea and, as he keeps saying, I owe you. It didnt matter because I always use two recorders and, anyway, I had bought a replacement the next morning.

But its important and its not, strictly speaking, a cost to him. Every year he puts a few thousand dollars aside for contingencies parking tickets, tea spills and at the end of the year he gives whats left to charity. The money is gone from day one, so unexpected losses cause no pain. Now I have three Olympus recorders.

He spilt the tea bear with me; this is important while grabbing at his BlackBerry. He was agitated, reading every incoming e-mail, because the Indian consulate in New York had held on to his passport and he needed it to fly to Bermuda. People were being mobilised in New York and, for some reason, France, to get the passport.

The important thing is this: the lost passport and the spilt tea were black swans, bad birds that are always lurking, just out of sight, to catch you unawares and wreck your plans. Sometimes, however, they are good birds. The recorders cost $20 less than the marked price owing to a labelling screw-up at Circuit City. Stuff happens. The world is random, intrinsically unknowable. You will never, he says, be able to control randomness.

To explain: black swans were discovered in Australia. Before that, any reasonable person could assume the all-swans-are-white theory was unassailable. But the sight of just one black swan detonated that theory. Every theory we have about the human world and about the future is vulnerable to the black swan, the unexpected event. We sail in fragile vessels across a raging sea of uncertainty. The world we live in is vastly different from the world we think we live in.

Last May, Taleb published The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. It said, among many other things, that most economists, and almost all bankers, are subhuman and very, very dangerous. They live in a fantasy world in which the future can be controlled by sophisticated mathematical models and elaborate risk-management systems. Bankers and economists scorned and raged at Taleb. He didnt understand, they said. A few months later, the full global implications of the sub-prime-driven credit crunch became clear.

The world banking system still teeters on the edge of meltdown. Taleb had been vindicated. It was my greatest vindication. But to me that wasnt a black swan; it was a white swan. I knew it would happen and I said so. It was a black swan to Ben Bernanke [the chairman of the Federal Reserve]. I wouldnt use him to drive my car. These guys are dangerous. Theyre not qualified in their own field.

In December he lectured bankers at Société Générale, Frances second biggest bank. He told them they were sitting on a mountain of risks a menagerie of black swans. They didnt believe him. Six weeks later the rogue trader and black swan Jérome Kerviel landed them with $7.2 billion of losses.

As a result, Taleb is now the hottest thinker in the world. He has a $4m advance on his next book. He gives about 30 presentations a year to bankers, economists, traders, even to Nasa, the US Fire Administration and the Department of Homeland Security. But he doesnt tell them what to do he doesnt know. He just tells them how the world is. m not a guru. Im just describing a problem and saying, You deal with it.

Getting to know Taleb is a highly immersive experience. Everything matters. Why are you not dressed Californian? he asks at our first meeting. Everything in Newport Beach is very Californian. Im wearing a jacket: its cold. Hes wearing shorts and a polo shirt. Clothes matter; they send signals. He warns against trusting anybody who wears a tie You have to ask, Why is he wearing a tie?

He has rules. In California he hires bikes, not cars. He doesnt usually carry his BlackBerry because he hates distraction and he really hates phone charges. But he does carry an Apple laptop everywhere and constantly uses it to illustrate complex points and seek out references. He says he answers every e-mail. He is sent thousands. He reads for 60 hours a week, but almost never a newspaper, and he never watches television.

If something is going on, I hear about it. I like to talk to people, I socialise. Television is a waste of time. Human contact is what matters.

But the biggest rule of all is his eccentric and punishing diet and exercise programme. Hes been on it for three months and hes lost 20lb. Hes following the thinking of Arthur De Vany, an economist of the acceptable type turned fitness guru. The theory is that we eat and exercise according to our evolved natures.

Early man did not eat carbs, so theyre out. He did not exercise regularly and he did not suffer long-term stress by having an annoying boss. Exercise must be irregular and ferocious Taleb often does four hours in the gym or 360 press-ups and then nothing for 10 days. Jogging is useless; sprinting is good. He likes to knacker himself completely before a long flight. Stress should also be irregular and ferocious early men did not have bad bosses, but they did occasionally run into lions.

Hes always hungry. At both lunches he orders three salads, which he makes me share. Our conversation swings from high philosophy and low economics back to dietary matters like mangoes bad and apples good as long as they are of an old variety. New ones are bred for sugar content. His regime works. He looks great springy and fit. He shows me an old identity card. He is fat and middle-aged in the photo. He looks 10 years younger than that. Look at me! That photo was taken seven years ago. No carbs!

This is risk management facing up to those aspects of randomness about which something can be done. Some years ago he narrowly survived throat cancer. The change in his voice was at first misdiagnosed as damaged vocal cords from his time on the trading floor. It can recur. Also he has a high familial risk of diabetes. He is convinced the diet of civilisation full of carbs and sugar is the problem. The grand doctors who once announced that complex carbohydrates are good for you are, to him, criminals responsible for thousands of deaths.

So, you are wondering, who is this guy? He was born in 1960 in Lebanon, though he casts doubt on both these . The year is close enough he doesnt like to give out his birth date because of identity theft and he doesnt believe in national character. He has, however, a regional identity; he calls himself a Levantine, a member of the indecipherably complex eastern Mediterranean civilisation. My body and soul are Mediterranean.

Both maternal and paternal antecedents are grand, privileged and politically prominent. They are also Christian Greek Orthodox. Startlingly, this great sceptic, this non-guru who believes in nothing, is still a practising Christian. He regards with some contempt the militant atheism movement led by Richard Dawkins.

Scientists dont know what they are talking about when they talk about religion. Religion has nothing to do with belief, and I dont believe it has any negative impact on peoples lives outside of intolerance. Why do I go to church? Its like asking, why did you marry that woman? You make up reasons, but its probably just smell. I love the smell of candles. Its an aesthetic thing.

Take away religion, he says, and people start believing in nationalism, which has killed far more people. Religion is also a good way of handling uncertainty. It lowers blood pressure. Hes convinced that religious people take fewer financial risks.

He was educated at a French school. Three traditions formed him: Greek Orthodox, French Catholic and Arab. They also taught him to disbelieve conventional wisdom. Each tradition had a different history of the crusades, utterly different. This led him to disbelieve historians almost as much as he does bankers.

But, crucially, he also learnt from a very early age that grown-ups have a dodgy grasp of probability. It was in the midst of the Lebanese civil war and, hiding from the guns and bombs, he heard adults repeatedly say the war would soon be over. It lasted 15 years. He became obsessed with probability and, after a degree in management from the Wharton business school at Pennsylvania University, he focused on probability for his PhD at the University of Paris.

For the non-mathematician, probability is an indecipherably complex field. But Taleb makes it easy by proving all the mathematics wrong. Let me introduce you to Brooklyn-born Fat Tony and academically inclined Dr John, two of Talebs creations. You toss a coin 40 times and it comes up heads every time. What is the chance of it coming up heads the 41st time? Dr John gives the answer drummed into the heads of every statistic student: 50/50. Fat Tony shakes his head and says the chances are no more than 1%. You are either full of crap, he says, or a pure sucker to buy that 50% business. The coin gotta be loaded.

The chances of a coin coming up heads 41 times are so small as to be effectively impossible in this universe. It is far, far more likely that somebody is cheating. Fat Tony wins. Dr John is the sucker. And the one thing that drives Taleb more than anything else is the determination not to be a sucker. Dr John is the economist or banker who thinks he can manage risk through mathematics. Fat Tony relies only on what happens in the real world.

In 1985, Taleb discovered how he could play Fat Tony in the markets. France, Germany, Japan, Britain and America signed an agreement to push down the value of the dollar. Taleb was working as an options trader at a French bank. He held options that had cost him almost nothing and that bet on the dollars decline. Suddenly they were worth a fortune. He became obsessed with buying out of the money options. He had realised that when markets rise they tend to rise by small amounts, but when they fall usually hit by a black swan they fall a long way.

The big payoff came on October 19, 1987 Black Monday. It was the biggest market drop in modern history. That had vastly more influence on my thought than any other event in history.

It was a huge black swan nobody had expected it, not even Taleb. But the point was, he was ready. He was sitting on a pile of out-of-the-money eurodollar options. So, while others were considering suicide, Taleb was sitting on profits of $35m to $40m. He had what he calls his f off money, money that would allow him to walk away from any job and support him in his long-term desire to be a writer and philosopher.

He stayed on Wall Street until he got bored and moved to Chicago to become a trader in the pit, the open-outcry market run by the worlds most sceptical people, all Fat Tonys. This he understood.

His first book, Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options, came out in 1997. He was moving away from being a pure trader, or a quantitative analyst who applies sophisticated maths to investments to being the philosopher he wanted to be. He was using the vast data pool provided by the markets and combining it with a sophisticated grasp of epistemology, the study of how and what we know, to form a synthesis unique in the modern world.

In the midst of this came his purest vindication prior to sub-prime. Long-Term Capital Management was a hedge fund set up in 1994 by, among others, Myron Scholes and Robert C Merton, joint winners of the 1997 Nobel prize in economics. It had the grandest of all possible credentials and used the most sophisticated academic theories of portfolio management. It went bust in 1998 and, because it had positions worth $1.25 trillion outstanding, it almost took the financial system down with it.

Modern portfolio theory had not accounted for the black swan, the Russian financial crisis of that year. Taleb regards the Nobel prize in economics as a disgrace, a laughable endorsement of the worst kind of Dr John economics. Fat Tony should get the Nobel, but hes too smart. People say to me, If economists are so incompetent, why do people listen to them? I say, They dont listen, theyre just teaching birds how to fly.

Taleb created his own hedge fund, Empirica, designed to help other hedge funds hedge their risks by using a refined form of his options wins running small losses in quiet times and winning big in turbulent markets. It did okay but, after a good first year, performed poorly when the market went though a quiet spell. Hes still involved in the markets, but mainly as a hobby like chess.

Finally, with two books Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, and The Black Swan and a stream of academic papers, he turned himself into one of the giants of modern thought. Theyre still trying to tear him down, of course; last year The American Statistician journal devoted a whole issue to attacking The Black Swan.

But I wouldnt bother. A bad but rather ignorant review in The New York Times resulted in such a savage rebuttal from Taleb on his website, www.fooledbyrandomness.com, that reviewers across the US pulled out in fear of his wrath. He knows his stuff and he keeps being right.

And what he knows does not sound good. The sub-prime crisis is not over and could get worse. Even if the US economy survives this one, it will remain a mountain of risk and delusion. America is the greatest financial risk you can think of.

Its primary problem is that both banks and government are staffed by academic economists running their deluded models. Britain and Europe have better prospects because our economists tend to be more pragmatic, adapting to conditions rather than following models. But still we are dependent on American folly.

The central point is that we have created a world we dont understand. Theres a place he calls Mediocristan. This was where early humans lived. Most events happened within a narrow range of probabilities within the bell-curve distribution still taught to statistics students. But we dont live there any more. We live in Extremistan, where black swans proliferate, winners tend to take all and the rest get nothing theres Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and a lot of software writers living in a garage, theres Domingo and a thousand opera singers working in Starbucks. Our systems are complex but over-efficient. They have no redundancy, so a black swan strikes everybody at once. The banking system is the worst of all.

Complex systems dont allow for slack and everybody protects that system. The banking system doesnt have that slack. In a normal ecology, banks go bankrupt every day. But in a complex system there is a tendency to cluster around powerful units. Every bank becomes the same bank so they can all go bust together.

He points out, chillingly, that banks make money from two sources. They take interest on our current accounts and charge us for services. This is easy, safe money. But they also take risks, big risks, with the whole panoply of loans, mortgages, derivatives and any other weird scam they can dream up. Banks have never made a penny out of this, not a penny. They do well for a while and then lose it all in a big crash.

On top of that, Taleb has shown that increased economic concentration has raised our vulnerability to natural disasters. The Kobe earthquake of 1995 cost a lot more than the Tokyo earthquake of 1923. And there are countless other ways in which we have built a world ruled by black swans some good but mostly bad. So what do we do as individuals and the world? In the case of the world, Taleb doesnt know. He doesnt make predictions, he insults people paid to do so by telling them to get another job. All forecasts about the oil price, for example, are always wrong, though people keep doing it. But he knows how the world will end.

Governments and policy makers dont understand the world in which we live, so if somebody is going to destroy the world, it is the Bank of England saving Northern Rock. The biggest danger to human society comes from civil servants in an environment like this. In their attempt to control the ecology, they dont understand that the link between action and consequences can be more vicious. Civil servants say they need to make forecasts, but its totally irresponsible to make people rely on you without telling them youre incompetent.

Bear Stearns the US Northern Rock was another vindication for Taleb. Hes always said that whatever deal you do, you always end up dealing with J P Morgan. It was JPM that picked up Bear at a bargain-basement price. Banks should be more like New York restaurants. They come and go but the restaurant business as a whole survives and thrives and the food gets better. Banks fail but bankers still get millions in bonuses for applying their useless models.

Restaurants tinker, they work by trial and error and watch real results in the real world. Taleb believes in tinkering it was to be the title of his next book. Trial and error will save us from ourselves because they capture benign black swans. Look at the three big inventions of our time: lasers, computers and the internet. They were all produced by tinkering and none of them ended up doing what their inventors intended them to do. All were black swans. The big hope for the world is that, as we tinker, we have a capacity for choosing the best outcomes.

We have the ability to identify our mistakes eventually better than average; thats what saves us. We choose the iPod over the Walkman. Medicine improved exponentially when the tinkering barber surgeons took over from the high theorists. They just went with what worked, irrespective of why it worked. Our sense of the good tinker is not infallible, but it might be just enough to turn away from the apocalypse that now threatens Extremistan.

He also wants to see diplomats dying of cirrhosis of the liver. It means theyre talking and drinking and not going to war. Parties are among the great good things in Talebs world.

And you and me? Well, the good investment strategy is to put 90% of your money in the safest possible government securities and the remaining 10% in a large number of high-risk ventures. This insulates you from bad black swans and exposes you to the possibility of good ones. Your smallest investment could go explode and make you rich. High-tech companies are the best. The downside risk is low if you get in at the start and the upside very high. Banks are the worst all the risk is downside. Dont be tempted to play the stock market If people knew the risks theyd never invest.s much more to Talebs view of the world than that. He is reluctant to talk about matters of human nature, ethics or any of the traditional concerns of philosophy because he says he hasnt read enough. But, when pressed, he comes alive.

You have to worry about things you can do something about. I worry about people not being there and I want to make them aware. We should be mistrustful of knowledge. It is bad for us. Give a bookie 10 pieces of information about a race and hell pick his horses. Give him 50 and his picks will be no better, but he will, fatally, be more confident.

We should be ecologically conservative global warming may or may not be happening but why pollute the planet? and probablistically conservative. The latter, however, has its limits. Nobody, not even Taleb, can live the sceptical life all the time s an art, its hard work. So he doesnt worry about crossing the road and doesnt lock his front door I cant start getting paranoid about that stuff. His wife locks it, however.

He believes in aristocratic though not, he insists, elitist values: elegance of manner and mind, grace under pressure, which is why you must shave before being executed. He believes in the Mediterranean way of talking and listening. One piece of advice he gives everybody is: go to lots of parties and listen, you might learn something by exposing yourself to black swans.

I ask him what he thinks are the primary human virtues, and eventually he comes up with magnanimity punish your enemies but dont bear grudges; compassion fairness always trumps efficiency; courage very few people have this; and tenacity tinker until it works for you.

s be human the way we are human. Homo sum I am a man. Dont accept any Olympian view of man and you will do better in society.

Above all, accept randomness. Accept that the world is opaque, majestically unknown and unknowable. From its depths emerge the black swans that can destroy us or make us free. Right now theyre killing us, so remember to shave. But we can tinker our way out of it. Its what we do best. Listen to Taleb, an ancient figure, one of the great Mediterranean minds, when he says: You find peace by coming to terms with what you dont know. Oh, and watch those carbs.

Taleb's top life tips:

1 Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.

2 Go to parties. You cant even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.

3 Its not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.

4 Wear your best for your execution and stand dignified. Your last recourse against randomness is how you act if you cant control outcomes, you can control the elegance of your behaviour. You will always have the last word.

5 Dont disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We dont understand their logic. Dont pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific .

6 Learn to fail with pride and do so fast and cleanly. Maximise trial and error by mastering the error part.

7 Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words , , too difficult too often, drop him or her from your social network. Never take for an answer (conversely, take most as most probably).

8 Dont read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants... or (again) parties.

9 Hard work will get you a professorship or a BMW. You need both work and luck for a Booker, a Nobel or a private jet.

10 Answer e-mails from junior people before more senior ones. Junior people have further to go and tend to remember who slighted them.

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